<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Butterfly Options &#187; Stock Option Trading</title>
	<atom:link href="http://butterflyoptions.net/tag/stock-option-trading/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://butterflyoptions.net</link>
	<description>Three-legged trading</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2010 06:15:22 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
			<item>
		<title>Tips for Better Options Trading</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/tips-for-better-options-trading</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/tips-for-better-options-trading#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jan 2010 12:36:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Future Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Trading Software]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Option]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/tips-for-better-options-trading</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[



There are two types of options available: call options and put options.
Call options give the taker the right but not the obligation to buy the shares at a specific price on or before a specific date.
The put options give the taker the right but not the obligation to sell the shares at a specific price [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are two types of options available: call options and put options.</p>
<p>Call options give the taker the right but not the obligation to buy the shares at a specific price on or before a specific date.</p>
<p>The put options give the taker the right but not the obligation to sell the shares at a specific price on or before a specific date. The taker of a put is only required to deliver the underlying shares if they exercise option.</p>
<p>There are a few advantages in option trading:</p>
<p>Put options allow you to hedge against a possible fall in the price of the shares you hold. You can consider taking it out as insurance against a loss in the share price.</p>
<p>By taking a call option, the purchase price for the shares is locked in. This gives the call option holder until the expiry date to decide whether he or she will or will not buy the shares. This is also applicable to the taker; he or she has to decide whether or not to sell the shares before the deadline.</p>
<p>The ease of trading in and out of an option position makes it possible to trade options with no intention of ever exercising them. If you expect the market to rise, you may want to buy call options, and if you are expecting a fall in the market, you may decide to buy put options. This means that you can sell the option prior to the expiry date to take a profit or limit a loss.</p>
<p>Options also allow you to build a diversified portfolio for a lower initial outlay than purchasing shares directly.</p>
<p>The income generation for options can get you profits over dividends by writing call options against your shares. By writing an option, you receive the option premium up front. While you get to keep the option premium, it is possible that you could be exercised against and have to deliver your shares to the taker at the exercise price. This strategy uses stock bought on margin.</p>
<p>By combining different options, or stocks with options, you can create a wide range of strategies.</p>
<p>You can earn extra income by writing options against shares you already own or are purchasing. This is one of the simplest and most rewarding strategies.</p>
<p>Using options gives you time to decide. Taking a call option can give you time to decide if you want to buy shares. You pay the premium, which is only a fraction of the price of the underlying shares.</p>
<p>The option then locks in a buying price for the shares if you decide to exercise. You then have until the expiry date of the option to decide if you want to buy the shares. This is the same as to the put option.</p>
<p>Keep in mind that, same as any other trades do not trade what you cannot afford to lose. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/tips-for-better-options-trading/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading Millionaire Principles</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-millionaire-principles</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-millionaire-principles#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Jan 2010 00:28:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-millionaire-principles</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[



INTRODUCTION
Having been trading stocks and options in the capital markets professionally over the years, I have seen many ups and downs.
I have seen paupers become millionaires overnight&#8230;
And
I have seen millionaires become paupers overnight&#8230;
One story told to me by my mentor is still etched in my mind:
&#8220;Once, there were two Wall Street stock market multi-millionaires. Both [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>INTRODUCTION<br />
Having been trading stocks and options in the capital markets professionally over the years, I have seen many ups and downs.<br />
I have seen paupers become millionaires overnight&#8230;<br />
And<br />
I have seen millionaires become paupers overnight&#8230;<br />
One story told to me by my mentor is still etched in my mind:<br />
&#8220;Once, there were two Wall Street stock market multi-millionaires. Both were extremely successful and decided to share their insights with others by selling their stock market forecasts in newsletters. Each charged US$10,000 for their opinions. One trader was so curious to know their views that he spent all of his $20,000 savings to buy both their opinions. His friends were naturally excited about what the two masters had to say about the stock market&#8217;s direction. When they asked their friend, he was fuming mad. Confused, they asked their friend about his anger. He said, ‘One said BULLISH and the other said BEARISH!&#8217;&#8221;<br />
The point of this illustration is that it was the trader who was wrong. In today&#8217;s stock and option market, people can have different opinions of future market direction and still profit. The differences lay in the stock picking or options strategy and in the mental attitude and discipline one uses in implementing that strategy.<br />
I share here the basic stock and option trading principles I follow. By holding these principles firmly in your mind, they will guide you consistently to profitability. These principles will help you decrease your risk and allow you to assess both what you are doing right and what you may be doing wrong.<br />
You may have read ideas similar to these before. I and others use them because they work. And if you memorize and reflect on these principles, your mind can use them to guide you in your stock and options trading.<br />
PRINCIPLE 1<br />
SIMPLICITY IS MASTERY<br />
When you feel that the stock and options trading method that you are following is too complex even for simple understanding, it is probably not the best.<br />
In all aspects of successful stock and options trading, the simplest approaches often emerge victorious. In the heat of a trade, it is easy for our brains to become emotionally overloaded. If we have a complex strategy, we cannot keep up with the action. Simpler is better.<br />
PRINCIPLE 2<br />
NOBODY IS OBJECTIVE ENOUGH<br />
If you feel that you have absolute control over your emotions and can be objective in the heat of a stock or options trade, you are either a dangerous species or you are an inexperienced trader.<br />
No trader can be absolutely objective, especially when market action is unusual or wildly erratic. Just like the perfect storm can still shake the nerves of the most seasoned sailors, the perfect stock market storm can still unnerve and sink a trader very quickly. Therefore, one must endeavor to automate as many critical aspects of your strategy as possible, especially your profit-taking and stop-loss points.<br />
PRINCIPLE 3<br />
HOLD ON TO YOUR GAINS AND CUT YOUR LOSSES<br />
This is the most important principle.<br />
Most stock and options traders do the opposite&#8230;<br />
They hold on to their losses way too long and watch their equity sink and sink and sink, or they get out of their gains too soon only to see the price go up and up and up. Over time, their gains never cover their losses.<br />
This principle takes time to master properly. Reflect upon this principle and review your past stock and options trades. If you have been undisciplined, you will see its truth.<br />
PRINCIPLE 4<br />
BE AFRAID TO LOSE MONEY<br />
Are you like most beginners who can&#8217;t wait to jump right into the stock and options market with your money hoping to trade as soon as possible?<br />
On this point, I have found that most unprincipled traders are more afraid of missing out on &#8220;the next big trade&#8221; than they are afraid of losing money! The key here is STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY! Take stock and options trades when your strategy signals to do so and avoid taking trades when the conditions are not met. Exit trades when your strategy says to do so and leave them alone when the exit conditions are not in place.<br />
The point here is to be afraid to throw away your money because you traded needlessly and without following your stock and options strategy.<br />
PRINCIPLE 5<br />
YOUR NEXT TRADE COULD BE A LOSING TRADE<br />
Do you absolutely believe that your next stock or options trade is going to be such a big winner that you break your own money management rules and put in everything you have? Do you remember what usually happens after that? It isn&#8217;t pretty, is it?<br />
No matter how confident you may be when entering a trade, the stock and options market has a way of doing the unexpected. Therefore, always stick to your portfolio management system. Do not compound your anticipated wins because you may end up compounding your very real losses.<br />
PRINCIPLE 6<br />
GAUGE YOUR EMOTIONAL CAPACITY BEFORE INCREASING CAPITAL OUTLAY<br />
You know by now how different paper trading and real stock and options trading is, don&#8217;t you?<br />
In the very same way, after you get used to trading real money consistently, you find it extremely different when you increase your capital by ten fold, don&#8217;t you?<br />
What, then, is the difference? The difference is in the emotional burden that comes with the possibility of losing more and more real money. This happens when you cross from paper trading to real trading and also when you increase your capital after some successes.<br />
After a while, most traders realize their maximum capacity in both dollars and emotion. Are you comfortable trading up to a few thousand or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands? Know your capacity before committing the funds.<br />
PRINCIPLE 7<br />
YOU ARE A NOVICE AT EVERY TRADE<br />
Ever felt like an expert after a few wins and then lose a lot on the next stock or options trade?<br />
Overconfidence and the false sense of invincibility based on past wins is a recipe for disaster. All professionals respect their next trade and go through all the proper steps of their stock or options strategy before entry. Treat every trade as the first trade you have ever made in your life. Never deviate from your stock or options strategy. Never.<br />
PRINCIPLE 8<br />
YOU ARE YOUR FORMULA TO SUCCESS OR FAILURE<br />
Ever followed a successful stock or options strategy only to fail badly?<br />
You are the one who determines whether a strategy succeeds or fails. Your personality and your discipline make or break the strategy that you use not vice versa. Like Robert Kiyosaki says, &#8220;The investor is the asset or the liability, not the investment.&#8221;<br />
Understanding yourself first will lead to eventual success.<br />
PRINCIPLE 9<br />
CONSISTENCY<br />
Have you ever changed your mind about how to implement a strategy? When you make changes day after day, you end up catching nothing but the wind.<br />
Stock market fluctuations have more variables than can be mathematically formulated. By following a proven strategy, we are assured that someone successful has stacked the odds in our favour. When you review both winning and losing trades, determine whether the entry, management, and exit met every criteria in the strategy and whether you have followed it precisely before changing anything.<br />
In conclusion&#8230;<br />
I hope these simple guidelines that have led my ship out of the harshest of seas and into the best harvests of my life will guide you too. Good Luck. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-millionaire-principles/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading (Basic Information)</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-basic-information</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-basic-information#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jan 2010 12:11:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[option market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock option investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock option strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-basic-information</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[



It is no secret that 2008 was a terrible year for most stock investors, and most probably things are going to get worst in the future. The US and the World economy are in a recession that will probably last at least for the rest of 2009. The recession translates into less demand for products [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is no secret that 2008 was a terrible year for most stock investors, and most probably things are going to get worst in the future. The US and the World economy are in a recession that will probably last at least for the rest of 2009. The recession translates into less demand for products sold by companies, which means less profits from companies and then lower stock prices. In very simple terms this is the summary of why the stock market is going lower.<br />
If you are an investor that is loosing money on your stock portfolio, maybe you should take a look at another market that can help, the Option Market. Most investors don&#8217;t know anything about stock option trading, or stock option strategies, or what is a Call or a Put option. The truth is the Option Market is a sophisticated market mostly used by professional investors. But this does not mean individual investors should stay away from it. There are many firms that will offer you advise on this market (for example www.teofutures.com), others will offer you newsletters and education so you can familiarize with this market.<br />
It is not my intention to explain in full detail about the option market, but these are some of the most important characteristics about stock option trading:<br />
1.- You don&#8217;t need a lot of money to trade this market. In general terms you should open an account with minimum $10,000 in order to be able to diversify that money into different stock option strategies. Some firms allow you to open with less than that, but based on experience accounts that start with small amounts of money generally loose 100% of their investments.<br />
2.- When trading stock options you can bet that the price of a stock will go higher or lower in the future. This means you still can make money even though the markets are down.<br />
3.- Stock option investing is a fast investment. You don&#8217;t buy and hold when trading options. You buy and sell, sometimes even in the same day. When purchasing options, usually the more time you keep a position the higher your chances of loosing money.<br />
4.- Trading options is considered risky because you can loose 100% of your investment capital and with some stock option strategies you can even loose more money than your original investment.<br />
5.- Be very careful whom you open an account with. Preferably follow strategies where you only buy Options (Calls or Puts) or spreads. Stay away from firms that will offer you guarantee returns or spectacular profits. As a rule of thumb anything between 0% and 120% return a year is an actual real return to obtain from Option trading. Returns of 500% a year, or turning $15,000 into $200,000 in 18 months, or 100% returns in the first 6 months, it is better to stay away from those offers. Maybe you can obtain those returns but the risks are very high so chances are you most probably loose all your money trying to obtain that type of results.<br />
As mentioned before, stock option trading could be a very good alternative to help investors during these difficult times. Don&#8217;t invest all your capital in this market and be very careful whom you work with. Specially stay away from guarantee returns. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-basic-information/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading â Fundamental Flaw in Fundamental Analysis and Stock Picking</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-fundamental-flaw-in-fundamental-analysis-and-stock-picking</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-fundamental-flaw-in-fundamental-analysis-and-stock-picking#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Dec 2009 11:56:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Relative Strength]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-fundamental-flaw-in-fundamental-analysis-and-stock-picking</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Clinging on to Fundamental Analysis and stock picking software, only keeps you stuck in trading equities. Trading this way, compounds concentration risk in one asset class and fails to adequately diversify risks across Equities, Bonds, Currencies and Commodities.Â  Thereâs much more to stock option trading, than stock itself.I cite Benjamin F. Kingâs study, quoted repeatedly [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Clinging on to Fundamental Analysis and stock picking software, only keeps you stuck in trading equities. Trading this way, compounds concentration risk in one asset class and fails to adequately diversify risks across Equities, Bonds, Currencies and Commodities.Â  Thereâs much more to stock option trading, than stock itself.I cite Benjamin F. Kingâs study, quoted repeatedly since 1966, because it remains valid and has yet to be disproved to the point of dismissing its logic.Market and Industry Factors, Journal of Business, January 1966:Â  â Of a stockâs move &#8230; </p>
<p>There must be a more compelling reason for you to trade stock other than just for the movement, if only 20% is unique to the underlying equity in question.Â  Consider this, in context of the Fundamental Analysis or stock picking software that you bought on a per $1 basis.Â  For each $1 dollar you spend, you âoutsourcedâ the analysis at a cost of 80 cents, only to receive back 20 cents worth of work. Shouldnât the 80:20 rule of âoutsourcingâ be the other way round? The problem is that you are still stuck with 80% of the work, to analyze price movement!Â  Plus, the more you use FA techniques/stock picking software, the more trading capital is stuck in equities alone.Now, you can say âspecialâ research papers help you pick stocks.Â  Letâs have a look at some of the more common fundamental metrics in these research subscriptions:1. Dividend Yield: the problem is in the variability of yields as firms are in different stages of their business development.Â  A Mature company that dominates in a well established sub-segment/sector is able to afford a different dividend yield; versus, a Young company in a growth-oriented field; versus, a Small firm in a growing area that may not be able to afford a dividend payout.Â  Bear in mind there is nothing special about firms that pay a dividend.A company that gives away a portion of itâs retained earnings &#8211; which is what a dividend is &#8211; effectively gives away part of its valuation, which means it is not worth as much as a company that does need to give investors candy to commit capital to it.Â  So, a dividend paying stock has to be far superior to a non-dividend paying stock for reasons other than the dividend.Â  If it is not, thereâs no point looking for dividend paying products to trade, there are plenty of non-dividend paying Indexes to trade.2. Price/Book Ratio: the problem is this metric varies across industries and from company to company, as the asset base and capital structures of companies change over time. It lacks cross sector applicability and accounting complexity arises from a firmâs capital structure as it changes due to acquisitions/divestments/CAPEX for new product lines; or, product line cut-backs, as recently seen in the restructuring of major US car companies.3.Â  Price/Cash Flow Ratio (the cousin of the P/E): accounting laws on depreciation vary across Asia, Europe and US.Â  As accounting rules are driven by tax codes, which change considerably across regions despite adoption of global accounting standards, there is a lack of uniformity in homogenizing a fundamental ratio that will fit as a common benchmark across geographies. These metrics fail to help you compare say a Dell parented in the US to an Acer parented in Taiwan; but, is listed as an ADR in the US, even though both are competitors in the same sector as computer manufacturers. Furthermore, the current dislocated cost of capital in credit markets, impairs the ability of corporations to optimize the operating cost of their balance sheets.Â  In essence, corporations are left with the working capital cash flows remaining on their balance sheets, as testament to their financial strength. Do not waste your money on Fundamental Analysis software or research paper subscriptions.As there is a fundamental flaw in fundamental analysis and stock picking, how do you select trades?  Trade the options of a broad-based Equity Index to replace single stock exposure.Â  To replace Fundamental Analysis, use the Relative Strength measure based on Point &amp; Figure methods.What is Relative Strength?Â  It is nothing more than taking one price as the Numerator, divided by another price as the Denominator, then multiplied by 100.Â  RS = (Price 1 / Price 2) x 100.Â  Typically, RS calculations use daily closing prices.Â  Though simple in its mathematical construction, RS is ingeniously powerful when it is applied not only within a sector; but, across sectors and between asset classes.Letâs start of within a sector.Â  For example, if you choose 2 semiconductor stocks trading at different prices, how do you know if one stock is outperforming the other in the same sector, when the 2 stocks have price changes at different rates; plus, the sectorâs price itself is also changing?SOX = Semiconductor Sector Index, trades up from 452.24 to 467.81.Numerator1: Â Â Â  Â Price1 = BRCM 33.15Â Â  Â RS1 = 7.33Â Â  Â Price2 = 33.80Â Â  Â RS2 = 7.23Numerator2: Â Â Â  Â Price1Â  = TSM 9.91Â Â  Â RS1 = 2.19Â Â  Â Price2 = 13.43Â Â  Â RS2 = 2.87Common Denominator: Â Â Â  Â SOXÂ  Price 1 = 452.24Â  Â Â Â  Â Â Â  Â Price 2 = 467.81BRCMâs RS1 = (33.15/452.24) x 100 = 7.33. BRCM&#8217;s RS2 = (33.80/467.81) x 100 = 7.23. Â TSMâs RS1 = (9.91/452.24) x 100 = 2.19.Â  TSM&#8217;s RS2 = (13.43/467.81) x 100 = 2.87.BRCM&#8217;s price rises from 33.15 to 33.80 and TSM&#8217;s price also rises from 9.91 to 13.43.Â  Simply because BRCM is a larger stock, does that mean it benefits from the SOX trading up? No, the RS reading (RS1 compared to RS2) shows BRCMâs RS reading dropped (7.33 down to 7.23) against TSMâs RS reading, which increased (2.19 to 2.87).Â  RS confirms TSM as the outperformer rising in price strength versus BRCMâs weakened price.Â  RS is constructed on pure price rules.Â  Using an Index as the denominator, acts as a much more durable benchmark and is structurally more reliable, compared to any âmagicalâ TA indicator; or, combination of income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements touted in stock picking programmes.You can replace BRCM or TSM with Indexes or ETFs.Â  Using Indexes with Relative Strength enables a common denominator to compare Equities against Bonds, Commodities and Currencies, to crossover into asset classes other than stocks to trade.Â  Itâs not that Relative Strength is infallible.Â  But compared to the fundamental metrics cited above, Relative Strength fails the least.Â  Break the mould on what you learnt about stock option trading.Is there an example of an optionable and consistently profitable portfolio that trades using Relative Strength across multiple asset classes? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to see a retail online option trading portfolio that excludes the use of single stocks and Fundamental Analysis, using broad based equity Indices, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs.Â  There is no need to trade FX directly. Just trade the options of Currency ETFs. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-fundamental-flaw-in-fundamental-analysis-and-stock-picking/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading &#8211; Paradox &#8211; More Trades on Dull Days and Normal Days than Big Days</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-paradox-more-trades-on-dull-days-and-normal-days-than-big-days</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-paradox-more-trades-on-dull-days-and-normal-days-than-big-days#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 23:50:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daily Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Ranges]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-paradox-more-trades-on-dull-days-and-normal-days-than-big-days</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Contrast these 2 days.  29 Sep, 2008: Dow down -7.50%, Nasdaq down -10.06% and S&#38;P 500 down -9.63%.  Versus 13 Nov, 2008: Dow up +6.25%, Nasdaq up +6.11% and S&#38;P 500 up +6.47%.  Many retail option traders would have rushed to get their spreads filled on such big days, either to get short or long.  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Contrast these 2 days.  29 Sep, 2008: Dow down -7.50%, Nasdaq down -10.06% and S&amp;P 500 down -9.63%.  Versus 13 Nov, 2008: Dow up +6.25%, Nasdaq up +6.11% and S&amp;P 500 up +6.47%.  Many retail option traders would have rushed to get their spreads filled on such big days, either to get short or long.  The discerning few, mindful that a +/- X% change in equities, is a day to avoid entry; instead, it is a signal to scale-off profits or reduce exposure, would have profited or limited losses on such days.Here’s the logic for categorizing what type of day it is. If you theoretically priced a long Calendar or a short Iron Condor on a Big Day – be it up or down, it is likely the product’s price has moved near or outside 1 Standard Deviation, even if the order was filled at mid-price for that spread.The following day, if conditions turned into a Dull Day be it up or down, let’s say the Futures did not even move more than a third within 1 Standard Deviation.  On the extreme day when you priced the entry, even though you were filled at mid-price, you still overpaid for the Calendar; or, sold more Theta as premium than is necessary to protect the wing span of the short Iron Condor, possibly increasing the risk of Gamma instability.  Alternatively, if you priced a directional spread on a Big Day, be it a Short Vertical or a Long Vertical you need a continuation in extreme days &#8211; after the Big Day that you filled the order on, for price to move. If price has already moved 68% (1 Standard Deviation) on a Big Day, moving towards 2 or 3 Standard Deviations is not the problem.  The issue is – can the price action sustain a 2 or 3 Standard Deviation move day after day, after the extreme day? It’s not an impossible event, just an infrequent occurrence.Pricing spreads for entry under extreme conditions, places huge pressure on your orders to outperform.  That’s a tough way to trade.  You are punishing the Profit and Loss of the trading account unnecessarily.  Psychologically and visually, continually entering trades on Big Days makes you search for  “magical” chart patterns for another huge breakout or breakdown in price.  No, you won’t go blind.  Though, you will cultivate a trading habit that must be broken, if you plan to have consistent results with online options trading.So, how do you work out the X% change, be it up or down to differentiate a Dull Day, from a Normal Day versus a Big Day?  Use the implied volatility of the front month’s options on the DJX, MNX and SPY – the mini versions of the Dow, Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 respectively, to categorize the market ranges of the day. For example, take the: </p>
<p>You can apply this calculation to the VIX, or any optionable product that you have identified a trade on.Why divide the front month’s volatility by 16?  As you know, volatility is expressed as an annualized number.  So, to get the daily volatility number, we divide it by the square root of the number of trading days in a year, which is 256 (rounded off).  There is no trading on weekends and exchange holidays, because prices cannot change on these days.  There are some years with more or less than 256 days, but using 256 is the norm.  The square root of 256 = 16. As part of your pre-market preparation, calculate on a spreadsheet the market ranges of the day (Dull, Normal or Big) for the DJX, MNX, SPY and the VIX at minimum. This is not to pick direction, as you will not know if the market will open to the upside/downside and STAY there, even if futures indicate an upside/downside bias. The calculation gives you a measured gauge, once the market opens to see if the trading range of the day is leaning towards a Dull, Normal or Big Day. Then, assess if it makes sense to theoretically price a spread, be it a Calendar, Iron Condor, Vertical, etc.  This guards you from chasing price near 1 Standard Deviation, to get your orders filled on a Big Day.  Doing this pre-market work, determines if you will be filling orders or scaling off for profit; alternatively, reducing exposure to losses, when the market opens.Want to see a consistently profitable portfolio that prices entries on Dull/Normal Days but takes profit/limits losses on Big Days, at work? Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a retail online option trading portfolio that practices this daily discipline.Statistically there are more Dull and Normal Days to price spreads for entry, especially during mid-July till August, as many floor traders go on leave.  On Dull and Normal Days aggressively pricing the order 0.10-0.15 below Theoretical Price for a debit spread; or, 0.10-0.15 above for a credit spread just means it takes 1-2 hours more to get filled.  If your order is filled within 5 minutes, you were lax in working the entry hard; versus, getting filled in 1-2 hours.  Diligence does make a material difference in the trade’s price-performance.  In avoiding entries on Big Days, you are not missing out on not getting in, when most retail traders are chasing price to get filled.  One key factor of the consistency in your account’s P/L is the price you got in and out of.  The discipline of staying consistent is to get filled within a sustainable range of the spread’s fair value for that particular trading day.  Remaining in the business of online options trading requires as much sense to stay out of trades, as it does to get in to trades. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-paradox-more-trades-on-dull-days-and-normal-days-than-big-days/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading â Candlesticks &amp; OHLC Bars Lose their Patterns on a Distribution Curve</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-5</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-5#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 12:22:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Candlesticks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Option Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&f]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Point & Figure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-5</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use of the term âEveryoneâ applies to retail off-the-floor traders who collectively only make up ~ 15% at most, in some cases even less, of the total traded volume on exchanges, depending on which exchange it is.Which raises the question: What are the eyes of those on the floor moving 80+% of traded volume looking at?Â  Some of you have visited the exchanges organized through your broker.Â  If youâve picked up the paper scattered on the floor, all youâll find is quick math notation: addition, subtraction, division and multiplication. Nothing more.Â  No drawings of a Tri-Star Doji, Dumpling Tops or Frypan Bottoms.Â  It makes sense, because all that is in front of floor traders are screens with price data and price alone.Â  With truck loads of calls and puts to hedge, floor traders could care less how many times during the day, price touched the tail of a dragon fly doji.Â  Theyâve already pre-planned to get more of; or, offload their inventory of calls/puts at a specific strike, for a given price.As a retail option trader, trading less than 10 contracts per trade, you are not exempt from tuning your eyes to focus only on price.Â  How do you simulate the observation of price alone from off-the-floor, if you remove the use of Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi charts? Use Point &amp; Figure charts instead.Why is it valid to only use Point &amp; Figure charting for trading options? It is the only method that plots just one type of data â price alone without time â price is the only data element needed on a distribution curve.Â  The same distribution curve used in the Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes or Binomial pricing models in your options trading platform. What about other charting methods like Candlesticks and OHLC Bars?Â  Letâs take the Doji, a well known candlestick, as an example.Â  The Doji is characterized by itâs Open and Close at the same price, the High is a different price from the Low.Â  Remember with a Distribution Curve, it records Price on the Horizontal axis and Frequency on the Vertical axis.Â  To map the doji onto the relevant axis of the distribution curve, it needs to be flipped on to its side, for the dojiâs price points to line up against the vertical axis.Â  So, a price that Closes at the same price it Opened, is recorded as 2 price points with twice the frequency of the High and Low.Â  With a distribution curve, you cannot leave the lines joining the dots of the doji on the graph.Â  All that is mapped is 4 dots representing the dojiâs price points.Â  Take away the lines joining the dots.Â  Question: Whereâs the doji? Not relevant anymore. Same logic applies to any candlestick (spinning top, hammer, etc.).Â  Candlesticks lose their characteristics, once they are mapped onto a distribution curve.Â  The implication is the same for the OHLC method used to count fractals in Elliot Waves and wave counts once price is mapped in its dispersion mode, the waves lose their characteristics. To visualize this problem with time-based charts, watch the video on Why Time-Based Charts (Bar/ Candlesticks/Heikin Ashi, etc.) lose their characteristics once mapped onto a Distribution Curve.Is it necessary to reconcile a charting method with the distribution curve? Yes, 68% is equal to one Standard Deviation (?).Â  â/+1? sets the parameters for the probabilities, which you construct an option spread around to test if the strikes will be touched or not touched, from the date a spread is filled till its expiry date.Bear in mind, changing the time frames in time-based charts be it Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, OHLC from minute/hour/day/week to reconcile conflicting patterns in one time-frame against another, does nothing to help you work out the Theta as decay in a debit spread; or, the positive Theta as premium sold in a Credit spread.Â  The only unit of time required to feed into a Theoretical pricing model is the expiration date, in turn affecting the probabilities per day for the number of days that passes.Â  As the units of time in time-based charts have no value in Theoretically pricing an option, it makes no sense to use them.So, what are time-based charts (Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) useful for? They are useful, for trading the underlying itself.Â  When you trade the underlying itself, aside from dealing with +/- Delta (directional risk), all the other Greeks (Gamma, Theta and Vega) are equal to zero.Â  Time-based charts are relevant for trading deep ITM options as a surrogate to the product for purely directional trading of the underlying itself.Do bear in mind with options, the deeper the ITM you go, the wider the Bid-Ask spread becomes compared to the narrower Bid-Ask spread differences in the ATM or OTM strikes.Â  Have you got enough capital in the account to keep trading at the ITM strikes only?Â  This is why many retail traders with account sizes below USD $25K look for increasing lower priced products, for e.g. $20 and below, as they search for ITM strikes that are affordable for them to trade using Candlestick/OHLC/Heikin-Ashi charts.Â  By virtue of being lower priced, these products often suffer illiquid open interest at their strikes, making you chase price for an uncompetitive fill, only to result in poor price-profit performance.Â  The other extreme is to over spend on ITM strikes of a higher priced product, for example $100 and above, as you found a trade candidate using some âspecialâ pattern scanning software, only to breach the money management rule of 2%-5% per trade, in filling the order.Is there an example of a portfolio with consistent wins and limited losses that applies Point &amp; Figure methods without the use of Candlesticks/OHLC/Heikin Ashi? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ for a model retail option traderâs portfolio that only uses Point &amp; Figure techniques.Â  Other than stock option trading, the portfolio includes option trades from non-equity asset classes.Light is needed to see; but, trading enlightenment will not come from a candlestick. And counting fractals within waves only serves to oscillate your pupils. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-5/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading â Candlesticks &amp; OHLC Bars Lose their Patterns on a Distribution Curve</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-4</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-4#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Dec 2009 23:27:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Candlesticks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Option Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&f]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Point & Figure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-4</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use of the term âEveryoneâ applies to retail off-the-floor traders who collectively only make up ~ 15% at most, in some cases even less, of the total traded volume on exchanges, depending on which exchange it is.Which raises the question: What are the eyes of those on the floor moving 80+% of traded volume looking at?Â  Some of you have visited the exchanges organized through your broker.Â  If youâve picked up the paper scattered on the floor, all youâll find is quick math notation: addition, subtraction, division and multiplication. Nothing more.Â  No drawings of a Tri-Star Doji, Dumpling Tops or Frypan Bottoms.Â  It makes sense, because all that is in front of floor traders are screens with price data and price alone.Â  With truck loads of calls and puts to hedge, floor traders could care less how many times during the day, price touched the tail of a dragon fly doji.Â  Theyâve already pre-planned to get more of; or, offload their inventory of calls/puts at a specific strike, for a given price.As a retail option trader, trading less than 10 contracts per trade, you are not exempt from tuning your eyes to focus only on price.Â  How do you simulate the observation of price alone from off-the-floor, if you remove the use of Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi charts? Use Point &amp; Figure charts instead.Why is it valid to only use Point &amp; Figure charting for trading options? It is the only method that plots just one type of data â price alone without time â price is the only data element needed on a distribution curve.Â  The same distribution curve used in the Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes or Binomial pricing models in your options trading platform. What about other charting methods like Candlesticks and OHLC Bars?Â  Letâs take the Doji, a well known candlestick, as an example.Â  The Doji is characterized by itâs Open and Close at the same price, the High is a different price from the Low.Â  Remember with a Distribution Curve, it records Price on the Horizontal axis and Frequency on the Vertical axis.Â  To map the doji onto the relevant axis of the distribution curve, it needs to be flipped on to its side, for the dojiâs price points to line up against the vertical axis.Â  So, a price that Closes at the same price it Opened, is recorded as 2 price points with twice the frequency of the High and Low.Â  With a distribution curve, you cannot leave the lines joining the dots of the doji on the graph.Â  All that is mapped is 4 dots representing the dojiâs price points.Â  Take away the lines joining the dots.Â  Question: Whereâs the doji? Not relevant anymore. Same logic applies to any candlestick (spinning top, hammer, etc.).Â  Candlesticks lose their characteristics, once they are mapped onto a distribution curve.Â  The implication is the same for the OHLC method used to count fractals in Elliot Waves and wave counts once price is mapped in its dispersion mode, the waves lose their characteristics. To visualize this problem with time-based charts, watch the video on Why Time-Based Charts (Bar/ Candlesticks/Heikin Ashi, etc.) lose their characteristics once mapped onto a Distribution Curve.Is it necessary to reconcile a charting method with the distribution curve? Yes, 68% is equal to one Standard Deviation (?).Â  â/+1? sets the parameters for the probabilities, which you construct an option spread around to test if the strikes will be touched or not touched, from the date a spread is filled till its expiry date.Bear in mind, changing the time frames in time-based charts be it Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, OHLC from minute/hour/day/week to reconcile conflicting patterns in one time-frame against another, does nothing to help you work out the Theta as decay in a debit spread; or, the positive Theta as premium sold in a Credit spread.Â  The only unit of time required to feed into a Theoretical pricing model is the expiration date, in turn affecting the probabilities per day for the number of days that passes.Â  As the units of time in time-based charts have no value in Theoretically pricing an option, it makes no sense to use them.So, what are time-based charts (Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) useful for? They are useful, for trading the underlying itself.Â  When you trade the underlying itself, aside from dealing with +/- Delta (directional risk), all the other Greeks (Gamma, Theta and Vega) are equal to zero.Â  Time-based charts are relevant for trading deep ITM options as a surrogate to the product for purely directional trading of the underlying itself.Do bear in mind with options, the deeper the ITM you go, the wider the Bid-Ask spread becomes compared to the narrower Bid-Ask spread differences in the ATM or OTM strikes.Â  Have you got enough capital in the account to keep trading at the ITM strikes only?Â  This is why many retail traders with account sizes below USD $25K look for increasing lower priced products, for e.g. $20 and below, as they search for ITM strikes that are affordable for them to trade using Candlestick/OHLC/Heikin-Ashi charts.Â  By virtue of being lower priced, these products often suffer illiquid open interest at their strikes, making you chase price for an uncompetitive fill, only to result in poor price-profit performance.Â  The other extreme is to over spend on ITM strikes of a higher priced product, for example $100 and above, as you found a trade candidate using some âspecialâ pattern scanning software, only to breach the money management rule of 2%-5% per trade, in filling the order.Is there an example of a portfolio with consistent wins and limited losses that applies Point &amp; Figure methods without the use of Candlesticks/OHLC/Heikin Ashi? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ for a model retail option traderâs portfolio that only uses Point &amp; Figure techniques.Â  Other than stock option trading, the portfolio includes option trades from non-equity asset classes.Light is needed to see; but, trading enlightenment will not come from a candlestick. And counting fractals within waves only serves to oscillate your pupils. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-4/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading â Candlesticks &amp; OHLC Bars Lose their Patterns on a Distribution Curve</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-3</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-3#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 23:31:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Candlesticks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Option Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&f]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Point & Figure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-3</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use of the term âEveryoneâ applies to retail off-the-floor traders who collectively only make up ~ 15% at most, in some cases even less, of the total traded volume on exchanges, depending on which exchange it is.Which raises the question: What are the eyes of those on the floor moving 80+% of traded volume looking at?Â  Some of you have visited the exchanges organized through your broker.Â  If youâve picked up the paper scattered on the floor, all youâll find is quick math notation: addition, subtraction, division and multiplication. Nothing more.Â  No drawings of a Tri-Star Doji, Dumpling Tops or Frypan Bottoms.Â  It makes sense, because all that is in front of floor traders are screens with price data and price alone.Â  With truck loads of calls and puts to hedge, floor traders could care less how many times during the day, price touched the tail of a dragon fly doji.Â  Theyâve already pre-planned to get more of; or, offload their inventory of calls/puts at a specific strike, for a given price.As a retail option trader, trading less than 10 contracts per trade, you are not exempt from tuning your eyes to focus only on price.Â  How do you simulate the observation of price alone from off-the-floor, if you remove the use of Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi charts? Use Point &amp; Figure charts instead.Why is it valid to only use Point &amp; Figure charting for trading options? It is the only method that plots just one type of data â price alone without time â price is the only data element needed on a distribution curve.Â  The same distribution curve used in the Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes or Binomial pricing models in your options trading platform. What about other charting methods like Candlesticks and OHLC Bars?Â  Letâs take the Doji, a well known candlestick, as an example.Â  The Doji is characterized by itâs Open and Close at the same price, the High is a different price from the Low.Â  Remember with a Distribution Curve, it records Price on the Horizontal axis and Frequency on the Vertical axis.Â  To map the doji onto the relevant axis of the distribution curve, it needs to be flipped on to its side, for the dojiâs price points to line up against the vertical axis.Â  So, a price that Closes at the same price it Opened, is recorded as 2 price points with twice the frequency of the High and Low.Â  With a distribution curve, you cannot leave the lines joining the dots of the doji on the graph.Â  All that is mapped is 4 dots representing the dojiâs price points.Â  Take away the lines joining the dots.Â  Question: Whereâs the doji? Not relevant anymore. Same logic applies to any candlestick (spinning top, hammer, etc.).Â  Candlesticks lose their characteristics, once they are mapped onto a distribution curve.Â  The implication is the same for the OHLC method used to count fractals in Elliot Waves and wave counts once price is mapped in its dispersion mode, the waves lose their characteristics. To visualize this problem with time-based charts, watch the video on Why Time-Based Charts (Bar/ Candlesticks/Heikin Ashi, etc.) lose their characteristics once mapped onto a Distribution Curve.Is it necessary to reconcile a charting method with the distribution curve? Yes, 68% is equal to one Standard Deviation (?).Â  â/+1? sets the parameters for the probabilities, which you construct an option spread around to test if the strikes will be touched or not touched, from the date a spread is filled till its expiry date.Bear in mind, changing the time frames in time-based charts be it Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, OHLC from minute/hour/day/week to reconcile conflicting patterns in one time-frame against another, does nothing to help you work out the Theta as decay in a debit spread; or, the positive Theta as premium sold in a Credit spread.Â  The only unit of time required to feed into a Theoretical pricing model is the expiration date, in turn affecting the probabilities per day for the number of days that passes.Â  As the units of time in time-based charts have no value in Theoretically pricing an option, it makes no sense to use them.So, what are time-based charts (Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) useful for? They are useful, for trading the underlying itself.Â  When you trade the underlying itself, aside from dealing with +/- Delta (directional risk), all the other Greeks (Gamma, Theta and Vega) are equal to zero.Â  Time-based charts are relevant for trading deep ITM options as a surrogate to the product for purely directional trading of the underlying itself.Do bear in mind with options, the deeper the ITM you go, the wider the Bid-Ask spread becomes compared to the narrower Bid-Ask spread differences in the ATM or OTM strikes.Â  Have you got enough capital in the account to keep trading at the ITM strikes only?Â  This is why many retail traders with account sizes below USD $25K look for increasing lower priced products, for e.g. $20 and below, as they search for ITM strikes that are affordable for them to trade using Candlestick/OHLC/Heikin-Ashi charts.Â  By virtue of being lower priced, these products often suffer illiquid open interest at their strikes, making you chase price for an uncompetitive fill, only to result in poor price-profit performance.Â  The other extreme is to over spend on ITM strikes of a higher priced product, for example $100 and above, as you found a trade candidate using some âspecialâ pattern scanning software, only to breach the money management rule of 2%-5% per trade, in filling the order.Is there an example of a portfolio with consistent wins and limited losses that applies Point &amp; Figure methods without the use of Candlesticks/OHLC/Heikin Ashi? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ for a model retail option traderâs portfolio that only uses Point &amp; Figure techniques.Â  Other than stock option trading, the portfolio includes option trades from non-equity asset classes.Light is needed to see; but, trading enlightenment will not come from a candlestick. And counting fractals within waves only serves to oscillate your pupils. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-3/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Online Options Trading â Portfolio Measures and Trade Performance Metrics</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/online-options-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-portfolio-measures-and-trade-performance-metrics</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/online-options-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-portfolio-measures-and-trade-performance-metrics#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 12:55:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Online Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portfolio Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/online-options-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-portfolio-measures-and-trade-performance-metrics</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Reward of Profit and the Risk of Losses for retail option trading needs to be managed at 2 related levels of performance: Portfolio and Trade Specific.At the Portfolio level for online options trading, there are 3 types of Targets that must be set, even before you trade.Maximum Return Target: complete achievement of the âidealâ [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Reward of Profit and the Risk of Losses for retail option trading needs to be managed at 2 related levels of performance: Portfolio and Trade Specific.At the Portfolio level for online options trading, there are 3 types of Targets that must be set, even before you trade.Maximum Return Target: complete achievement of the âidealâ measure. Dream of the âidealâ that stretches you beyond what is practical. For example, earn 2-3 times your monthly living expenses with the monthly trading profit. This is to stretch your imagination well beyond mediocrity. Even if you fail, you just might end up with more than your original target.Minimum Return Target: the lowest acceptable measure, achievable under most conditions, excluding a catastrophic market event. Use the historical annualized return of the S&amp;P 500 between 10%-12% (prior to the 2008 financial pandemic), as the lowest acceptable boundary.Â  The S&amp;P 500 being a widely accepted benchmark for trading equities is adequate to base the minimum target off, though your portfolio needs to be profitable â being ahead of the $SPX in negative territory does not count.Â  Below the historical annualized return range of 10%â12%, is the 3 Month T-Bill, presently near zero.Â  While the T-bill theoretically represents an âabsolutelyâ zero risk investment, even the safest investments will still carry a residual amount of risk no matter how small that risk is.Â  The point is this.Â  You got into options and all that Greek terminology, not to make salads; but to beat the performance of equities as an asset class.Â  If your portfolio&#8217;s return is between what is near zero-risk and 10%â12% per annum, you are just delaying reaching a point of pain that marks failure in grasping the base-line ability to control risks.Â  If the returns of your portfolio are between 0%â12% and you plan to continue trading options, processes within your trading process will need to be reâengineered.&#8221;Halt Trade&#8221; Target: cumulative losses reach an absolute amount below the Minimum Return, making it necessary to stop trading altogether for a stated period.Â  10% of [(60% x Cash Balance at the start of the year); or Net Liquidating Value].Â  Example, for a $50,000 trading account, 10% x (60% x $50,000) = $3,000 of losses in total, is the absolute amount to halt trading.Â  Why 10%? Blowing up your self-funded capital is final.Â  There is no bail out package, as a home options trading business does not have access to bank loans; or, shareholdersâ equity to finance your personal trades.Now, drilling down to Trade Specific performance measures.Even before you calculate the metrics, characteristically, what makes for a consistently managed portfolio are these traits: </p>
<p>Where can I see this step up function in a consistently profitable portfolio, with these portfolio measures and trade performance metrics? Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to see a model retail option traderâs portfolio that shows these traits.Moving onto the hard metrics.Â  Thereâs 2 ways to count the Return on your trading capital. </p>
<p>In both cases, you can minus the Total Cost of Commissions from Total Profit, to get a Total Net Profit number.Â  The, divide the Total Net Profit by the Start of Year Cash Balance; or, Net Liquidating Value.Â  Net Liquidating Value is how much your entire trading account is worth, which is equal to Total Cash + Options Value + Stocks Value + Commodities Value + Bonds Value. The Start of Year Cash Balance is straightforward â it is the money in the account at the beginning of that trading year. Cash increases when you are short securities; but, cash decreases, as you get long on securities.To review your performance, calculate these metrics using the Profit (wins) and Loss (losers) from your account: </p>
<p>The Average Win divided by the Average Loss measures how RESPONSIVE you are in taking profits and cutting losses.Combine the Accuracy ratio with the Responsiveness ratio to get your Performance Ratio.Performance Ratio = (Win/Loss Probability) x (Average Win / Average Loss).Â  Always aim to maintain the Performance Ratio above 1.00. Why?Â  The commonly known money management rule is to allocate 2%-5% of (60% x Net Liquidating Value of the account) per trade.Â  What is not commonly practiced is the discipline of moderating a +/- 1% in trade allocation between the 2%-5% allocation. </p>
<p>This is how to achieve a ladder effect in stepping up profits and stepping down losses. This mechanism of stepping up/down is an indispensable tool for rewarding profit and to discipline the risk of losses.Â  It forces you to improve both ACCURACY and RESPONSIVENESS before raising your position size. </p>
<p>Where can I learn more about portfolio measures and trade performance metrics as part of a total trading system? Follow the link below, for 55 hours of video-based learning of online options trading from home. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/online-options-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-portfolio-measures-and-trade-performance-metrics/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stock Option Trading â Candlesticks &amp; OHLC Bars Lose their Patterns on a Distribution Curve</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-2</link>
		<comments>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-2#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Dec 2009 11:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Candlesticks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Option Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&f]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Point & Figure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-2</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use of the term âEveryoneâ applies to retail off-the-floor traders who collectively only make up ~ 15% at most, in some cases even less, of the total traded volume on exchanges, depending on which exchange it is.Which raises the question: What are the eyes of those on the floor moving 80+% of traded volume looking at?Â  Some of you have visited the exchanges organized through your broker.Â  If youâve picked up the paper scattered on the floor, all youâll find is quick math notation: addition, subtraction, division and multiplication. Nothing more.Â  No drawings of a Tri-Star Doji, Dumpling Tops or Frypan Bottoms.Â  It makes sense, because all that is in front of floor traders are screens with price data and price alone.Â  With truck loads of calls and puts to hedge, floor traders could care less how many times during the day, price touched the tail of a dragon fly doji.Â  Theyâve already pre-planned to get more of; or, offload their inventory of calls/puts at a specific strike, for a given price.As a retail option trader, trading less than 10 contracts per trade, you are not exempt from tuning your eyes to focus only on price.Â  How do you simulate the observation of price alone from off-the-floor, if you remove the use of Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi charts? Use Point &amp; Figure charts instead.Why is it valid to only use Point &amp; Figure charting for trading options? It is the only method that plots just one type of data â price alone without time â price is the only data element needed on a distribution curve.Â  The same distribution curve used in the Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes or Binomial pricing models in your options trading platform. What about other charting methods like Candlesticks and OHLC Bars?Â  Letâs take the Doji, a well known candlestick, as an example.Â  The Doji is characterized by itâs Open and Close at the same price, the High is a different price from the Low.Â  Remember with a Distribution Curve, it records Price on the Horizontal axis and Frequency on the Vertical axis.Â  To map the doji onto the relevant axis of the distribution curve, it needs to be flipped on to its side, for the dojiâs price points to line up against the vertical axis.Â  So, a price that Closes at the same price it Opened, is recorded as 2 price points with twice the frequency of the High and Low.Â  With a distribution curve, you cannot leave the lines joining the dots of the doji on the graph.Â  All that is mapped is 4 dots representing the dojiâs price points.Â  Take away the lines joining the dots.Â  Question: Whereâs the doji? Not relevant anymore. Same logic applies to any candlestick (spinning top, hammer, etc.).Â  Candlesticks lose their characteristics, once they are mapped onto a distribution curve.Â  The implication is the same for the OHLC method used to count fractals in Elliot Waves and wave counts once price is mapped in its dispersion mode, the waves lose their characteristics. To visualize this problem with time-based charts, watch the video on Why Time-Based Charts (Bar/ Candlesticks/Heikin Ashi, etc.) lose their characteristics once mapped onto a Distribution Curve.Is it necessary to reconcile a charting method with the distribution curve? Yes, 68% is equal to one Standard Deviation (?).Â  â/+1? sets the parameters for the probabilities, which you construct an option spread around to test if the strikes will be touched or not touched, from the date a spread is filled till its expiry date.Bear in mind, changing the time frames in time-based charts be it Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, OHLC from minute/hour/day/week to reconcile conflicting patterns in one time-frame against another, does nothing to help you work out the Theta as decay in a debit spread; or, the positive Theta as premium sold in a Credit spread.Â  The only unit of time required to feed into a Theoretical pricing model is the expiration date, in turn affecting the probabilities per day for the number of days that passes.Â  As the units of time in time-based charts have no value in Theoretically pricing an option, it makes no sense to use them.So, what are time-based charts (Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) useful for? They are useful, for trading the underlying itself.Â  When you trade the underlying itself, aside from dealing with +/- Delta (directional risk), all the other Greeks (Gamma, Theta and Vega) are equal to zero.Â  Time-based charts are relevant for trading deep ITM options as a surrogate to the product for purely directional trading of the underlying itself.Do bear in mind with options, the deeper the ITM you go, the wider the Bid-Ask spread becomes compared to the narrower Bid-Ask spread differences in the ATM or OTM strikes.Â  Have you got enough capital in the account to keep trading at the ITM strikes only?Â  This is why many retail traders with account sizes below USD $25K look for increasing lower priced products, for e.g. $20 and below, as they search for ITM strikes that are affordable for them to trade using Candlestick/OHLC/Heikin-Ashi charts.Â  By virtue of being lower priced, these products often suffer illiquid open interest at their strikes, making you chase price for an uncompetitive fill, only to result in poor price-profit performance.Â  The other extreme is to over spend on ITM strikes of a higher priced product, for example $100 and above, as you found a trade candidate using some âspecialâ pattern scanning software, only to breach the money management rule of 2%-5% per trade, in filling the order.Is there an example of a portfolio with consistent wins and limited losses that applies Point &amp; Figure methods without the use of Candlesticks/OHLC/Heikin Ashi? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ for a model retail option traderâs portfolio that only uses Point &amp; Figure techniques.Â  Other than stock option trading, the portfolio includes option trades from non-equity asset classes.Light is needed to see; but, trading enlightenment will not come from a candlestick. And counting fractals within waves only serves to oscillate your pupils. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://butterflyoptions.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve-2/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

