There must be a more compelling reason for you to trade stock other than just for the movement, if only 20% is unique to the underlying equity in question.  Consider this, in context of the Fundamental Analysis or stock picking software that you bought on a per $1 basis.  For each $1 dollar you spend, you “outsourced” the analysis at a cost of 80 cents, only to receive back 20 cents worth of work. Shouldn’t the 80:20 rule of “outsourcing” be the other way round? The problem is that you are still stuck with 80% of the work, to analyze price movement!  Plus, the more you use FA techniques/stock picking software, the more trading capital is stuck in equities alone.Now, you can say “special” research papers help you pick stocks.  Let’s have a look at some of the more common fundamental metrics in these research subscriptions:1. Dividend Yield: the problem is in the variability of yields as firms are in different stages of their business development.  A Mature company that dominates in a well established sub-segment/sector is able to afford a different dividend yield; versus, a Young company in a growth-oriented field; versus, a Small firm in a growing area that may not be able to afford a dividend payout.  Bear in mind there is nothing special about firms that pay a dividend.A company that gives away a portion of it’s retained earnings – which is what a dividend is – effectively gives away part of its valuation, which means it is not worth as much as a company that does need to give investors candy to commit capital to it.  So, a dividend paying stock has to be far superior to a non-dividend paying stock for reasons other than the dividend.  If it is not, there’s no point looking for dividend paying products to trade, there are plenty of non-dividend paying Indexes to trade.2. Price/Book Ratio: the problem is this metric varies across industries and from company to company, as the asset base and capital structures of companies change over time. It lacks cross sector applicability and accounting complexity arises from a firm’s capital structure as it changes due to acquisitions/divestments/CAPEX for new product lines; or, product line cut-backs, as recently seen in the restructuring of major US car companies.3.  Price/Cash Flow Ratio (the cousin of the P/E): accounting laws on depreciation vary across Asia, Europe and US.  As accounting rules are driven by tax codes, which change considerably across regions despite adoption of global accounting standards, there is a lack of uniformity in homogenizing a fundamental ratio that will fit as a common benchmark across geographies. These metrics fail to help you compare say a Dell parented in the US to an Acer parented in Taiwan; but, is listed as an ADR in the US, even though both are competitors in the same sector as computer manufacturers. Furthermore, the current dislocated cost of capital in credit markets, impairs the ability of corporations to optimize the operating cost of their balance sheets.  In essence, corporations are left with the working capital cash flows remaining on their balance sheets, as testament to their financial strength. Do not waste your money on Fundamental Analysis software or research paper subscriptions.As there is a fundamental flaw in fundamental analysis and stock picking, how do you select trades? Trade the options of a broad-based Equity Index to replace single stock exposure.  To replace Fundamental Analysis, use the Relative Strength measure based on Point & Figure methods.What is Relative Strength?  It is nothing more than taking one price as the Numerator, divided by another price as the Denominator, then multiplied by 100.  RS = (Price 1 / Price 2) x 100.  Typically, RS calculations use daily closing prices.  Though simple in its mathematical construction, RS is ingeniously powerful when it is applied not only within a sector; but, across sectors and between asset classes.Let’s start of within a sector.  For example, if you choose 2 semiconductor stocks trading at different prices, how do you know if one stock is outperforming the other in the same sector, when the 2 stocks have price changes at different rates; plus, the sector’s price itself is also changing?SOX = Semiconductor Sector Index, trades up from 452.24 to 467.81.Numerator1:      Price1 = BRCM 33.15    RS1 = 7.33    Price2 = 33.80    RS2 = 7.23Numerator2:      Price1  = TSM 9.91    RS1 = 2.19    Price2 = 13.43    RS2 = 2.87Common Denominator:      SOX  Price 1 = 452.24           Price 2 = 467.81BRCM’s RS1 = (33.15/452.24) x 100 = 7.33. BRCM’s RS2 = (33.80/467.81) x 100 = 7.23.  TSM’s RS1 = (9.91/452.24) x 100 = 2.19.  TSM’s RS2 = (13.43/467.81) x 100 = 2.87.BRCM’s price rises from 33.15 to 33.80 and TSM’s price also rises from 9.91 to 13.43.  Simply because BRCM is a larger stock, does that mean it benefits from the SOX trading up? No, the RS reading (RS1 compared to RS2) shows BRCM’s RS reading dropped (7.33 down to 7.23) against TSM’s RS reading, which increased (2.19 to 2.87).  RS confirms TSM as the outperformer rising in price strength versus BRCM’s weakened price.  RS is constructed on pure price rules.  Using an Index as the denominator, acts as a much more durable benchmark and is structurally more reliable, compared to any “magical” TA indicator; or, combination of income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements touted in stock picking programmes.You can replace BRCM or TSM with Indexes or ETFs.  Using Indexes with Relative Strength enables a common denominator to compare Equities against Bonds, Commodities and Currencies, to crossover into asset classes other than stocks to trade.  It’s not that Relative Strength is infallible.  But compared to the fundamental metrics cited above, Relative Strength fails the least.  Break the mould on what you learnt about stock option trading.Is there an example of an optionable and consistently profitable portfolio that trades using Relative Strength across multiple asset classes? Yes.  Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a retail online option trading portfolio that excludes the use of single stocks and Fundamental Analysis, using broad based equity Indices, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs.  There is no need to trade FX directly. Just trade the options of Currency ETFs.

You can apply this calculation to the VIX, or any optionable product that you have identified a trade on.Why divide the front month’s volatility by 16?  As you know, volatility is expressed as an annualized number.  So, to get the daily volatility number, we divide it by the square root of the number of trading days in a year, which is 256 (rounded off).  There is no trading on weekends and exchange holidays, because prices cannot change on these days.  There are some years with more or less than 256 days, but using 256 is the norm.  The square root of 256 = 16. As part of your pre-market preparation, calculate on a spreadsheet the market ranges of the day (Dull, Normal or Big) for the DJX, MNX, SPY and the VIX at minimum. This is not to pick direction, as you will not know if the market will open to the upside/downside and STAY there, even if futures indicate an upside/downside bias. The calculation gives you a measured gauge, once the market opens to see if the trading range of the day is leaning towards a Dull, Normal or Big Day. Then, assess if it makes sense to theoretically price a spread, be it a Calendar, Iron Condor, Vertical, etc.  This guards you from chasing price near 1 Standard Deviation, to get your orders filled on a Big Day.  Doing this pre-market work, determines if you will be filling orders or scaling off for profit; alternatively, reducing exposure to losses, when the market opens.Want to see a consistently profitable portfolio that prices entries on Dull/Normal Days but takes profit/limits losses on Big Days, at work? Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a retail online option trading portfolio that practices this daily discipline.Statistically there are more Dull and Normal Days to price spreads for entry, especially during mid-July till August, as many floor traders go on leave.  On Dull and Normal Days aggressively pricing the order 0.10-0.15 below Theoretical Price for a debit spread; or, 0.10-0.15 above for a credit spread just means it takes 1-2 hours more to get filled.  If your order is filled within 5 minutes, you were lax in working the entry hard; versus, getting filled in 1-2 hours.  Diligence does make a material difference in the trade’s price-performance.  In avoiding entries on Big Days, you are not missing out on not getting in, when most retail traders are chasing price to get filled.  One key factor of the consistency in your account’s P/L is the price you got in and out of.  The discipline of staying consistent is to get filled within a sustainable range of the spread’s fair value for that particular trading day.  Remaining in the business of online options trading requires as much sense to stay out of trades, as it does to get in to trades.

Where can I see this step up function in a consistently profitable portfolio, with these portfolio measures and trade performance metrics? Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a model retail option trader’s portfolio that shows these traits.Moving onto the hard metrics.  There’s 2 ways to count the Return on your trading capital.

In both cases, you can minus the Total Cost of Commissions from Total Profit, to get a Total Net Profit number.  The, divide the Total Net Profit by the Start of Year Cash Balance; or, Net Liquidating Value.  Net Liquidating Value is how much your entire trading account is worth, which is equal to Total Cash + Options Value + Stocks Value + Commodities Value + Bonds Value. The Start of Year Cash Balance is straightforward – it is the money in the account at the beginning of that trading year. Cash increases when you are short securities; but, cash decreases, as you get long on securities.To review your performance, calculate these metrics using the Profit (wins) and Loss (losers) from your account:

The Average Win divided by the Average Loss measures how RESPONSIVE you are in taking profits and cutting losses.Combine the Accuracy ratio with the Responsiveness ratio to get your Performance Ratio.Performance Ratio = (Win/Loss Probability) x (Average Win / Average Loss).  Always aim to maintain the Performance Ratio above 1.00. Why?  The commonly known money management rule is to allocate 2%-5% of (60% x Net Liquidating Value of the account) per trade.  What is not commonly practiced is the discipline of moderating a +/- 1% in trade allocation between the 2%-5% allocation.

This is how to achieve a ladder effect in stepping up profits and stepping down losses. This mechanism of stepping up/down is an indispensable tool for rewarding profit and to discipline the risk of losses.  It forces you to improve both ACCURACY and RESPONSIVENESS before raising your position size.

Where can I learn more about portfolio measures and trade performance metrics as part of a total trading system? Follow the link below, for 55 hours of video-based learning of online options trading from home.

Chapter 3: Understanding the Profit/Loss Patterns over Time. This chapter evaluates the profit and loss in terms of Time Units (typically day and week) feeding into Time Spans, Average Profit versus Average Loss, Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Median P/L, Percentage of Winning Days versus Losing Days, Drawdown and Correlation Analysis. This section focuses on the core metrics of trade performance, for a given period:

In calculating the metrics, it becomes clear if your strengths are in trading long debit spreads, short credit spreads, directional trades (be it up/down) or non-directional trades. Trade in line with what you are intuitively profitable at, be that debit/credit spreads or directional/non-directional trades. The metrics help you guard against trading counter-intuitively in opposition to your strengths. Chapter 4: The Risk Components of an Individual Portfolio. The emphasis of this chapter is on Historical Volatility, Correlation and Implied Volatility and Value at Risk (VaR). While it is educational to understand how these various risks can be aggregated up into a single, portfolio measure of exposure, it is not useful for option traders trading retail portfolios from home.  Why?  To re-simulate the test scenarios on the portfolio cited in the text, requires specific types of data. The Account Statement of most retail option trading platforms only record each trade’s profit, loss and date. The additional data of each day’s Historical Volatility, Implied Volatility, Correlation coefficient values and Standard Deviation/Variance values will need to be sourced from outside the trading platform.  Unless you are trading multiple portfolios on behalf of other individuals, VaR simulations make sense. If you are trading just your own portfolio, it more useful to get an Implied Volatility tool that forecasts IV rising or falling by X% over 30-60-90-120 days.  This is a much more affordable way to assess the total impact of IV and Correlation in IV on your portfolio.Chapter 7: The Risk Components of an Individual Trade. The section to focus on here is the Core Transaction-Level Statistics. This includes the Trade Level P/L, Holding Period, Average P/L, Weighted Average P/L, Average Holding Period, P/L by Security or Asset Class and Long Side P/L versus Short Side P/L.  The main point here is to monetize the Average Holding Period of a long or short position. For example, as a guideline:

In conclusion, the critical points to focus on are the 3 types of targets at the portfolio level, the core metrics of trade performance, identifying your intuitive trading orientation and monetizing the average holding period of long and short trades for efficient trade turnover.  Translating these specific elements of trading risk into methods you can rely on every day, builds the required consistency in the profit and loss of your trading account.

… if you can afford to diversify …

Where can I learn how to trade options profitably using Intermarket analysis with retail asset allocation methods? Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a profitable retail option trader’s portfolio that is set up to cycle in and cycle out of Intermarket relationships, between asset classes.Why is it possible? I’m using optionable ETFs (Commodity, Currency, Emerging Market and REIT), as well as optionable broad based/sector Equity Indexes, to trade the volatilities of each respective asset class. I do not need to trade Commodities and Currencies directly.  Remember, volatility can be added to/reduced from the portfolio, as not all Asset Classes or Sectors or Individual Companies or Countries move up/down in value ALL at the same time; and/or, ALL at the same rate.

Where can I learn how to trade options with consistent profits focused on Implied Volatility without Historical Volatility? Follow the link below, entitled “Consistent Results” to see a model retail option trader’s portfolio that excludes the use of HV and focuses on trading only IV. I’ll cite these actual historical events, to bolster the argument for removing Historical Volatility from your trading process altogether.27 Feb, 2007: Widespread Panic from the sizeable China sell-off in equities. If you were trading the options of an index like the FXI which is the iShares product of China’s 25 largest and most liquid Chinese companies though listed in the US; but they are headquartered in China, you would have been impacted. While you can argue it’s possible to have market events recreate the ranges of the Dow, Nasdaq & S&P, how do you recreate the scenario of the VIX and VXN soaring 59% and 39%?22Jan, 2008: Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points prior to the scheduled policy meeting on Jan 30th, whereby the FOMC cut another 50 basis points on the date of the meeting.  If you were trading interest-rate sensitive sectors using the options on a Financial ETF or a Banking Index like the BKX; or, the Housing Index like the HGX, you would have been impacted. And in the current environment of rates being near zero, the FOMC while they still have a rate policy tool, they are unable to cut rates by the same number of basis points like before. What was a historical event is not successively repeatable going forward, not until rates are raised again and subsequently they get cut again.Question: How do you reconstruct history?  That is the history of events forming Historical Volatility.  The answer is in the real examples cited, as with any other financially related historical event – you cannot reconstruct history. You may be able to mimic parts of HV but you cannot repeat it in its entirety.  So, if you continue using HV-IV crossovers, you visually confuse yourself by searching for volatility “mispricing” patterns that you would like to see; but, you will end up with poor profit performance instead.  It makes more practical trading sense to focus purely on IV; then, diversify the trading of volatilities across multiple asset classes beyond equities.Where can I learn more about trading IV across multiple asset classes using only options, without having to own stock? Follow the link below (video-based course), that uses IV Mean Reversion/Mean Repulsion and IV Forecasting, as reliable methods to trade the implied volatilities across broad-based Equity Indexes, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs and Emerging Market ETFs.

Guy Cohen has extensive experience of both the US and UK derivatives and stock markets.  He specializes in trading and analytics applications ranging from real estate to derivatives and has developed comprehensive business, trading and training models, all expressly designed for maximum user-friendliness. There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 302 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  The Four Basic Options Strategies.  20, 6.62%.2  Income strategies.  68, 22.52%.3  Vertical Spreads.  30, 9.93%.4  Volatility Strategies.  56, 18.54%.5  Sideways Strategies.  44, 14.57%.6  Leveraged Strategies.  20, 6.62%.7  Synthetic Strategies.  54, 17.88%.8  Taxation for Stock and Options Traders.  10, 3.31%.Focus on chapters 2, 4, 5 and 7, which makes up about 74% of the book. These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes.  Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective. Chapter 2: Income Strategies. These strategies construct spreads where part of the spread sells Theta as premium within a shorter term (typically 30-45 days), to collect income.  In its entirety the strategy may result in a Net Debit or Net Credit spread.  There are 13 types of spreads in this category: Covered Call, Short (Naked) Put, Bull Put Spread, Bear Call Spread, Long Iron Butterfly, Long Iron Condor, Covered Short Straddle, Covered Short Strangle, Calendar Call, Diagonal Call, Calendar Put, Diagonal Put and a Covered Put (a.k.a. Married Put).Chapter 4: Volatility Strategies. These strategies use spreads that are indifferent to price direction, so long as price explodes out of range.  For a given explosion in price, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread,.  There are 11 spread types are defined in this category: Straddle, Strangle, Strip, Strap, Guts, Short Call Butterfly, Short Put Butterfly, Short Call Condor, Short Put Condor, Short Iron Butterfly and Short Iron Condor.Chapter 5: Sideways Strategies. These strategies involve non-directional spreads, requiring price to drift within a confined range. As price remains range bound, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread.  There are 11 types of spreads in this category: Short Straddle, Short Strangle, Short Guts, Long Call Butterfly, Long Put Butterfly, Long Call Condor, Long Put Condor, Modified Call Butterfly, Modified Put Butterfly, Long Iron Butterfly and Long Iron Condor. Chapter 7: Synthetic Strategies. Synthetic strategies mimic the risk profile of a stock, futures or other option position by combining calls, puts with or without stock.  Though typically, most synthetic positions are either long or short stock.  If you have a 401K plan or employee stock purchase plan that is long stock, then it may make sense to consider synthetic strategies, as you are already long Delta.  There is unlimited risk for some synthetic spreads, regardless if the strategy involves stock or not.  There are disadvantages to using synthetics.  12 spread types are defined in this category: Collar, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Short Call Synthetic Straddle, Short Put Synthetic Straddle, Long Synthetic Future, Short Synthetic Future, Long Combo, Short Combo and Long Box.From a retail option trader’s viewpoint, I prefer to establish positions without the use of stock.  Using stock synthetically in a position makes each trade more capital intensive than it needs to be.  Especially, if your trading account is below USD $50,000.  The use of stock in configuring these positions does not add material merit in controlling risk and there is no added monetary benefit in tying up available trading capital in a stock-dependent synthetic position that could otherwise be achieved without the use of stock.  As an options trader in the first place, you want as little to do with the stock itself as possible, other than to configure the required option position around the underlying product, which can be substituted with a cash-settled Index instead of a stock-settled Index.Out of a total of 56 strategies covered in the book, I have reduced the list down to 35 Limited Risk Spread types that do not need to include stock as part of its original construction.  Limited Risk means there is a cap to the maximum loss – “Capped Risk” is the term used in the book. This should always be the starting point of any strategy you choose to construct. Do not just look at the unlimited profit (Uncapped Reward) side of the strategy without realizing that there is an unlimited loss (Uncapped Risk) side to same strategy.Limited Risk Spreads with “Unlimited” Reward and their Directional outlook.1. Long Call.    Bullish.2. Long Put.    Bearish.    3. Put Ratio Backspread.    Bearish; reverse Bullish.4. Call Ratio Backspread.    Bullish; reverse Bearish.        5. Straddle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.6. Strangle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.7. Strip.    Bearish.8. Strap.    Bullish.    9. Guts.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    1-9 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.10. Bull Put Ladder.    Bearish.    10-11 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.11. Bear Call Ladder.    Bullish.    Limited Risk Spreads with Limited Reward and their Directional outlook.12. Bear Put Spread.    Bearish.13. Bull Call Spread.    Bullish.14. Long Call Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.15. Long Put Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.16. Long Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.17. Long Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.18. Long Box.    Indifferent/~Neutral.19. Long Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.20. Long Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.21. Long Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.22. Long Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    12-22 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.23. Bear Call Spread.    Bearish.    23-35 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.24. Bull Put Spread.    Bullish.25. Short Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.26. Short Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.27. Diagonal Call.    Bearish.28. Diagonal Put.    Bullish.29. Modified Call Butterfly.    Bearish to ~Neutral.30. Modified Put Butterfly.    Bullish to ~Neutral.31. Short (Naked) Put.    Bullish.32. Short Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.33. Short Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.34. Short Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.35. Short Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.Other than the 35 Defined Risk Spreads that do not require stock as part of their original construction for entry, there are 6 Defined Risk spreads that need stock to configure their positions. The 6 positions that I have deliberately excluded from the list above are the Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Collar and Covered Call.In conclusion, for new to intermediate traders do not be overwhelmed by the 56 strategies in the book.  It’s entitled the “Bible of Options Strategies” for a reason. What is critical is to get a deep understanding of the Long Call, Long Put, Short Call, Short Put, Long Vertical Call/Put, Short Vertical Call/Put and the Long Calendar Call/Put. That is the 4 Basic Options Strategies, plus the Vertical and the Calendar – the only 2 strategies that floor traders define as true spreads. The other combinations are a mixture of the basics with or without stock.