First, analyze the most recent price action. What are prices doing? Is there a definite pattern the you can detect? Where have prices been? Have they already run the stops close by? If you are daytrading, has there been sufficient volume during  the hours you like to trade?

Second, do you see any confirmation of your intentions in the recent price action. E.g. You are intending to go long and the last bar on the chart made a key reversal to the downside.  This would not be conducive to going long.

Third, apply the current information to whatever analysis you do. Faith has no place in the market, neither has wishing, praying or hoping. realistic analysis of price action and correct trade execution and management are the only things that will save you from the sting of an unsuccessful trade. If you’re going to pray, do it before you ever enter an order into the market.  Then make sure your prayer is the right one.  Don’t pray for prices to go up, because someone else may be praying for prices to go down. Pray instead for wisdom, guidance and insight.  In trading you, any alone are responsible for knowing what you are doing before you get into the markets. You must do more than believe in your abilities, you must effectively use them to produce the results you want. Successful trading is built on experience, which is in large part knowledge of what works and what does not work. Mistakes teach lessons only to students wanting to learn. If you are afraid of making mistakes, how are you going to learn? A key to success is to not repeat the mistakes, and correct the thoughts or trading methods that caused them.

There are any number of reasons why a trader hesitates before a trade.  The main one is lack of planning.  Without a plan, there is no degree of confidence a trade will be successful, it’s all wishful thinking. Unless they are outright gamblers, traders usually have a strong need to protect their assets and avoid risk. This is especially true for beginning traders. It can take a long time to build up sufficient capital for serious trading. By that I mean sufficient capital to be able to trade for a living. It is quite understandable to fear losing all or part of your initial capital. Beginners tend to seek absolute certainty before taking a risk, and gaining true confidence in you ability to trade successfully can take time. Unscrupulous marketers of mechanical trading systems and methods take advantage of the beginners fears and lack of confidence by advertising “sure-fire” “magic” ways to trade, instead of revealing the truth about the difficulties in becoming a consistently successful trader.

When it comes to short term trading, there isn’t very much time for long deliberations. Market conditions are in continuous flux. Decisions need to be made relatively quickly, and if one waits too long to execute a trade, he or she may miss a significant opportunity. The reasons for hesitation are everywhere, and traders must be aware of them, and create a plan to prevent them.  Let’s look at a few of the things that cause traders to hesitate:

The complex charting software available these days tends to increase hesitation.  Traders think that the more confirmation they can get from indicators, the more certain they can be that a trade will be successful.  However, all indicators lag the market. The notion that an indicator can somehow predict what will happen once a trade is entered is nothing more than wishful thinking. An indicator may give some degree of confidence about entering a trade, but the indicator cannot trade the trade, only the trader can do that. Once a trade is entered, it becomes entirely a process of management. It’s tempting to look at as many indicators and signals as possible. Doing so, however, can be very time consuming. That’s why seasoned traders advise looking at only a few if any key indicators.

Hesitation is often related to a lack of confidence in the trader’s trading strategy or trading ability. There are numerous reasons for such lack of confidence. Some of the reasons are shallow and mostly on the surface, like being distracted by watching financial TV while trading.  Other reasons are more deep-seated, and actually reflect psychological problems dating all the way back to early childhood.  A trader may not believe that his or her trading plan is adequately developed.  Nevertheless, they are determined to trade, so they muster up their courage and finally jump into a trade almost guaranteeing that the outcome will be a matter of pure chance.  Some traders may question their trading plan because they know that they did not spend enough time preparing it. Sometimes hesitation is intuitive, warning the trader to avoid the trade. All too often, traders are not tuned into their own intuitive feelings.  In the case of intuition, hesitation can act as a motivator. If the trader feels the hesitation is because of lack of adequate preparation, then that trader must learn to spend more time preparing for trades. By studying the markets a trader can come to see new higher probability setups, thereby reducing doubt and indecision, and in turn stop the hesitation because of more adequate preparation.

Hesitation sometimes reflects a deep desire to be right and a fear of being wrong. It has been our experience that many of the people who are attracted to trading fit into this category.  Great care must be taken by physicians, engineers, scientific types, and mathematicians, who seem to be the most prone to this type of hesitation. They are often perfectionists afraid to face their inadequacies. By putting off a decision, they don’t have to face their limitations, and can pretend they are better traders than they really are. If I had the time and space, I could give you dozens of examples of this kind of hesitation.  The perfectionist’s reality states that everything must be in order and follow rules.  They think strictly inside the box.  They want everything to be perfect, so they continually second guess and doubt themselves and what they are doing. They believe that they cannot cope with being wrong. This occurs in trading decisions as well as other life decisions. Extreme perfectionists often think that once they make a bad trade, it will be the start of a downward spiral and a complete blowout of their trading account.

Hesitation very often relates to low self-esteem or other deep-rooted psychological issues. We see these more times than we would like to.  Traders with low self-esteem usually lack confidence, not only in trading, but other areas of life. Beneath it all, they doubt their ability to trade, and hesitate making a trade until they the guilt of not doing so overcomes their fear.  At that point in time, they enter a trade out of pure compulsion driven by guilt.  This exposes them to a trade with no real plan to support it.  They become victims of pure chance.  We also find that traders who hesitate may have a conflict regarding their success. They can actually fear success.  They have been told by parents or others that they were no good, that they would never amount to anything, that they were “bad.” These people strive for success at one level of their consciousness, but at a deeper level, they secretly believe they cannot attain it, or do not deserve it.

Identifying, directly facing, and eventually eliminating a problem of hesitation is the only way to truly deal with it. Chronic hesitation will eventually destroy the confidence a trader needs for success. If the problem is not dealt with and the traders continues to hesitate, miss important market moves, and see his or her equity begin to dwindle, that trader runs the risk of becoming a phantom trader, a pretender, becoming convinced that the imaginary trades being made are real. If you are prone to hesitation, it’s vital that you deal with this problem early in your trading endeavors. Identify the reasons for it, confront the problem, and make changes as soon as possible. These are changes you have to make within yourself.  If you will truly engage in self-examination with the object of eliminating hesitation, you can trade become consistent and successful in trading profitably.

WHAT IS A REDUCED MARGIN SPREAD?

Because of perceived lower volatility, exchanges grant reduced margins on certain types of spreads. Spreads consist of being long in one or more contracts of one market and short in one or more contracts of the same market but in different months—an Intramarket spread; or being long in one or more contracts of one market and short one or more contracts of a different market, and in the same or different months—an Intermarket spread.

DISTORTIONS ABOUT SPREADS

There are some distortions about spread trading that need to be dispelled. If we get them out of the way, I can show you the tremendous advantages spread trading has over any other form of trading.

It is said that spreads do not move as much as outright futures. I agree 100% with that statement. However, spreads trend much more often than outright futures, they trend much more dramatically than outright futures, and they trend for longer periods of time than do the outright futures. For these reasons you can make much more money with spreads than with the outrights.

The second distortion about spread trading goes like this: “You have to pay double commissions when you trade spreads.” Yes! You have to pay two commissions for every spread you enter in the market. So what? You are trading two contracts instead of one. You pay two commissions because you are trading two separate contracts, one in one place and the other in an entirely different place. Paying two commissions for two separate trades is hardly unfair. Let me tell you what is unfair—paying a round turn commission for an option that expires worthless. Why don’t you hear people complaining about that? You pay for a round turn, and you receive only half a turn. Doesn’t make a lot of sense, does it?

ADVANTAGES OF SPREAD TRADING

There are so many advantages to trading reduced margin spreads that I hope I don’t run out of room here before I can tell you all of them. Let’s begin with return on margin, i.e., yield.

Yield: As I write this, the margin to trade an outright futures position in soybeans is $1,050, whereas a spread trade in soybeans requires only $250, only 23% as much. If soybean futures move one full point, that move is worth $50. If a soybean spread moves one full point, that move is worth $50. That means either a 5 point favorable move in soybean futures or a 5 point favorable move in a soybean spread earns the trader $250. However, the difference in return on margin is extraordinary: In the futures the return is $250/$1,050=23.8%. For the spread, the return is $250/$250=100%. Think about that!

Leverage: This leads us to the next benefit of spread trading—with the same amount of margin, you could have traded 4 soybean spreads instead of one soybean futures. How’s that for leverage? Instead of making $250 on a five point move, you could have made $1,000. Reduced margin spreads offer a much more efficient use of your margin money.

Trend: Earlier I said that spreads tend to trend much more dramatically than outright futures contracts. Not only that, but they trend more often than do outright futures. I don’t have room here to show you the dozens of sharply trending spreads that can regularly be found in the markets, so we’ll have to settle for a recent one. You’ll have to take my word for it that this sort of trending happens frequently when trading spreads.

Opportunities: Because spreads tend to trend more often and more dramatically than do outright futures contracts, they offer more opportunities for earning money, and they do so without the interference and noise caused by computerized trading, scalpers, and market movers. Spreads avoid the “noise” in the markets. There are numerous reduced margin spread opportunities, enough to keep almost any trader busy. And it is the lack of interference by market makers and shakers that leads us to one of the most important advantage of trading spreads, whether they be reduced margin or full margin.

Invisibility: One of the primary problems with any kind of trading in the outrights, whether it be in futures or stocks, is that of stop running. The insiders love it when they can see your order. Even when your entry or exit is held mentally, they know where it is. They are keenly aware of where people place their orders. That is why they love Fibonacci and Gann traders. They know precisely where those people will place their orders. The same is true for anyone who uses one of the more commonly known indicators. The insiders fade moving average crossovers, and so-called overbought and oversold—regardless of which indicator is used to show either of those conditions. They know when prices have reached the outer limits of the Bollinger Bands, and they know the location of supposed support and resistance, etc. But with spreads, they have no idea of the location of your orders. You are long in one market and short in another. Your position is invisible to the insiders. They can’t run your stop, because you don’t have one. You cannot place a stop order in the market when trading spreads! Your exit point is entirely mental; it exists exclusively in your head. In that respect, spread trading is a more pure form of trading. It is the closest thing in trading to having a level playing field. Could that be the reason you hardly ever hear about spread trading?

Liquidity: Attempting to trade in “thin” illiquid markets is one of the surest ways to encounter serious stop running and bizarre price movements. However, other than occasional problems with getting filled, spread trading does not suffer from a lack of liquidity—which in itself creates more trading opportunities. I would never consider taking an outright position in feeder cattle. Feeders are a thin, illiquid market normally best left to professional interests. But a reduced margin (feeder cattle)-(live cattle) spread is something I look for all the time. Some of the moves in this particular spread are incredible. They are worth hundreds and even thousands of dollars per spread, several times a year. They are highly seasonal in nature due to the birth and growth cycles of cattle. The same thing is true of spreading both live and feeder cattle against lean hogs. These spreads are seasonal, which brings us to the next great advantage to spread trading – seasonality.

Seasonality: Whereas seasonality doesn’t always take place as planned, i.e., seasonality can come early, late, or not at all, but when it is happening, you can see it. It is obvious when a seasonal trade is working as expected. Seasonality is not subject to the whims of man. Seasonality is one of the strongest reasons for trading spreads. Crops are planted within a given period of time. Calves and piglets are born according to their birth cycle and they grow according to their growth cycle. Even futures based on financial instruments are seasonal, and many of them offer reduced margin spreads.

Backwardation: Along with seasonality comes the huge profits that can be made when an underlying goes into backwardation. This is true for any agricultural commodity as well as any financial instrument. I don’t have space here to explain backwardation, but when it occurs, which is commonplace, the spread between front and back months widens tremendously, thereby offering marvelous profit-making opportunities to the spread trader. As if that weren’t enough, the same opportunity becomes available when the period of backwardation ends and the relationship between front and back months returns to normal.

Probabilities: If we eliminate those trades in the outrights in which you get yourself whipsawed in a sideways market and maybe win or lose a little, the actual odds of winning on any trade is 50%. If you are long and prices move down, you lose. Conversely, if you are short and prices move up, you lose. It doesn’t matter how accurate is your trade selection, the bottom line is that your chances of being right once you enter a trade are one in two. However, when you enter a spread you are not primarily concerned with the direction of prices. Your primary concern is with the direction of the spread.

With a spread you can make money when both legs of the spread are moving up, both legs are moving down, when both legs are moving sideways but one more so than the other, or best of all, when the leg you are long is moving up and the leg you are short is moving down! As long as the leg you are long is moving better than the leg you are short, you will have a winning trade. There is only one situation in which you can lose with a spread, and that is to be dead wrong about both legs. So with a spread you can win even if you were wrong about the direction of price movement, as long as you’re not too wrong.

There are additional opportunities in spread trading, including spreads that require full margin. You can trade spreads with stock indexes, sector funds, and single stock futures. Did you know you can daytrade stock index and currency spreads? These are topics for another day and another time.

Unfortunately, either by accident or design, much of the truth of spread trading has been lost over the years. There are many more aspects to it than I have touched on here. Furthermore, there are some wonderful and inexpensive tools available that make spread trading a delight. Spread trading is one of the most relaxed ways to trade. It rarely takes more than 1-2 hours of your time each day, and more often than not, we are talking about only minutes per day to seek out and trade the wonderful opportunities that are available in reduced margin spreads.

Be reminded that option trading is tricky and complex, especially if you are clueless as to when to make that right sale or purchase. On the other hand, you need not have to be disheartened. As online trading advisers always say, everything about options trading need not be too complicated.

Dealing with stock options is like putting your hard-earned money to a valuable investment. It is like plowing that field for a potential harvest in a number of months time. With regards to options contracts, you just have to be knowledgeable in terms of value and price indicated in said contracts. Expiration dates are also a thing to care about.

The discipline behind options trading encompasses simple steps. To determine options trading strategies that work likewise employs particular practices.

First, learn when to negotiate and do it properly. If you want higher income, you may go for long-term securities. But if you want an investment with shorter timetables, then stock options is the best alternative. Studying the options contract is also necessary, particularly if you do not want such contract to expire worthless.

Second, be wary of OTMs. Out of the money transactions do not fare well for rookie traders, all because OTMs rely on stock price movements. We all know how hard it is to anticipate trends and even professional traders find it difficult to determine price movements.

Third, maximize every opportunity to earn by engaging in trade earlier. This usually occurs when an investor decides to sell his options prior its expiration date. Liquidity has always been important and waiting for your options contract to just expire is not the best practice.

Fourth, never underestimate the value of commodity stocks. It has been said that big surprises come in small packages and the same idea can be applied to commodity stocks. This may be non-conservative but surely passes as one of the options trading strategies that work. It can also be true that industries are ruled by stable companies but investing in smaller yet thriving brands can also lead to financial success.

Indeed, knowing only the essentials in options trading can do wonders. Thanks to the many information provided by online sites and real-life experts. Understanding and knowing these options trading strategies that work will not only assist you in trading, for it can also give you that much needed confidence in investing.

But where the does the long term investor fit in? Are there any option trading strategies that the conservative investor can employ to enhance his or her long term returns?

In fact, there are.

Leveraged Investing

There are actually a number of option trading strategies that can be employed by the long term investor. Leveraged Investing is the name I’ve given this approach, and these are the strategies I use myself.

The point of Leveraged Investing is to use options to acquire stock for a discount and then to generate additional returns above and beyond the actual performance of the stock itself.

Here are just two examples:

[Please note: in the interest of simplicity, commissions have been excluded from all examples.]

Example #1 – Writing Covered Calls. Writing covered calls is a popular, and generally conservative, income-producing strategy. A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase 100 shares of the underlying stock at a certain price (strike price) by a certain date (expiration date).

Conversely, when you write, or sell, a call option on shares that you own, you sell (you receive a premium in the form of cash) someone else the right to purchase your stock at a certain price at or prior to the expiration date. If you own 100 shares of a stock trading at $28/share, you could write a $30 covered call expiring in one month. If the stock closes above $30/share, you’ll be obligated to sell your shares for $30/share. But if the stock closes at or below $30/share, the call option will expire worthless and you’re free to repeat the process. Either way, the premium received is yours to keep.

Writing covered calls is a great way to generate additional income from your investments, but the long term investor must take extra precautions to avoid being called out and forced to sell his or her long term holdings (I call one such precaution, The 1/3 Covered Call Writing Strategy–it basically consists of writing covered calls on only a portion of your portfolio in order to give yourself greater flexibility and protection against sharp moves higher by the stock).

Example #2 – Writing Puts to Acquire Stock at a Discount. A put option, in contrast, gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock at a certain price by a certain date. When you write, or sell, a put, you’re essentially insuring someone else’s shares against a drop below the agreed upon strike price.

Like writing covered calls, writing puts can be a great source of income. In fact, the risk-reward profiles for writing puts and writing covered calls are essentially the same. Whereas call writers may write calls out of the money, at the money, or even in the money (the most conservative approach), put writers will typically write out of the money puts (e.g. writing a put with a $30 strike price on a stock currently trading at $32/share).

But for the long term investor, income is of less importance than the opportunity to buy a stock at a lower price that what it’s currently trading at. Writing an at the money put will greatly improve the likelihood of acquiring the stock, and you’ll also receive the most pure premium.

Example: Suppose you write an at the money put on a stock that you really like. If the stock is trading at $30/share and you write the put at the $30 strike price for, let’s say, $2.50 in premium (or $250 in cash since each option contract represents 100 shares of the underlying stock) you’re setting yourself up for a win-win situation. That’s not to say you can’t lose money on the deal, but look at the two possible scenarios.

Conclusion:

As they say, options involve risk and may not be suitable for everyone. But not all option trading strategies have to be high risk propositions. Some approaches, in fact, may offer substantial benefits for the conservative investor. If you are a long term investor, it may be worth your while to conduct additional research to see if there should be a place in your portfolio for options.